8-K: Sable Offshore Corp. Eyes Q4 2024 Production Restart at Santa Ynez Unit
Summary
- Sable Offshore Corp. is focused on restarting production at the Santa Ynez Unit (SYU), which has been shut down since June 2015 due to a pipeline issue.
- The company estimates production can recommence in the fourth quarter of 2024, but this is contingent on obtaining necessary permits and re-establishing oil transportation systems.
- If production does not restart by January 1, 2026, the assets will revert to EM without compensation to Sable.
- The SYU has a significant production history, having produced over 671 MMBoe between 1981 and 2014, with average production of 29 MBbl/d and 27 MMcf/d in 2014.
- Sable has identified over 100 infill drilling and step-out opportunities within the SYU.
- The company is also exploring carbon capture and storage (CCS) opportunities using existing infrastructure.
- The SYU has an estimated 1,207 MMBoe of net recoverable total resources, with 646 MMBoe remaining as contingent resources.
- Sable's management team has a strong track record of safe operations in California, including previous experience at Plains Exploration & Production (PXP).
- The company is targeting a conservative leverage profile with long-term leverage ratios of approximately 1.0x.
- Sable is planning an aggressive shareholder return program, including fixed quarterly dividends and opportunistic share repurchases.
Sentiment
Score: 7
Explanation: The document presents a positive outlook with a clear plan for production restart and shareholder returns. However, there are risks and uncertainties associated with the project, which temper the overall sentiment.
Positives
- The Santa Ynez Unit (SYU) is a massive oil-weighted resource with a significant production history.
- Sable has a highly-qualified management team with a proven track record of safe operations in California.
- The company has identified over 100 infill drilling and step-out opportunities, indicating substantial growth potential.
- Sable owns the onshore processing facilities at Las Flores Canyon, reducing cash costs.
- The company is exploring carbon capture and storage (CCS) opportunities, which could enhance its environmental profile.
- Sable is targeting a conservative leverage profile and an aggressive shareholder return program.
- The company has a low decline rate of approximately 8% annually from existing resources.
- Sable has access to infrastructure and end markets, with oil sales contracts linked to Brent Crude.
Negatives
- The SYU has been shut in since June 2015 due to a pipeline issue, creating uncertainty around the restart.
- The production restart is contingent on obtaining necessary permits and re-establishing oil transportation systems.
- If production does not restart by January 1, 2026, the assets will revert to EM without compensation to Sable.
- The resource estimates are contingent and may differ significantly from the quantities of oil and natural gas that are ultimately recovered.
- The company's financial projections are subject to a wide variety of risks and uncertainties.
- The SYU assets are currently classified as contingent resources, not proved reserves.
Risks
- The ability to recommence production of the SYU assets is subject to regulatory approvals and pipeline re-establishment.
- Commodity price volatility could impact the profitability of the SYU.
- There is a risk of increased operating costs and lack of availability of drilling and production equipment.
- Environmental and weather risks could affect operations.
- The uncertainty inherent in estimating oil and natural gas resources could lead to revisions of estimates.
- Reductions in cash flow and lack of access to capital could hinder development plans.
- The company faces competition from other oil and gas producers.
- Litigation, complaints, and adverse publicity could negatively impact the company.
- Privacy and data protection laws, breaches, or loss of data could pose risks.
Future Outlook
Sable is targeting a production restart at the SYU in Q4 2024 and plans to implement an aggressive shareholder return program. The company is also exploring carbon capture and storage opportunities and has identified significant infill and step-out drilling potential.
Management Comments
- Sable management believes that the facilities have been well maintained during the downtime.
- Sable management have identified >100 infill drilling and step-out opportunities.
- Sable management are well-qualified to operate Santa Ynez.
- Sable management believes that the facilities have been well maintained during the downtime.
Industry Context
This announcement comes as the oil and gas industry is facing increased scrutiny over environmental impact and the need for sustainable practices. Sable's focus on carbon capture and storage aligns with these trends. The company's efforts to restart production at the SYU also reflect the industry's ongoing efforts to maximize production from existing assets.
Comparison to Industry Standards
- Sable's targeted leverage ratio of approximately 1.0x is conservative compared to some peers in the oil and gas industry, which often operate with higher debt levels.
- The company's focus on shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases is in line with industry trends, particularly among companies with stable cash flows.
- The estimated 8% annual decline rate is relatively low compared to some shale oil plays, which can experience much steeper decline rates.
- Sable's management team's experience at Plains Exploration & Production (PXP) provides a benchmark for safe and efficient operations in California.
- The company's contingent resource estimates are based on an NSAI report, which is a common practice in the industry for assessing resource potential.
- The company's peer group includes companies such as BRY, CHRD, CIVI, CRC, KOS, MGY, MUR, TALO and WTI, which are all active in the oil and gas sector.
Stakeholder Impact
- Shareholders can expect potential returns through dividends and share repurchases.
- Employees may see job opportunities related to the production restart.
- Customers will have access to oil and gas resources.
- Suppliers will have opportunities to provide goods and services to Sable.
- Creditors will be impacted by the company's financial performance and leverage profile.
Next Steps
- Sable will continue to work on obtaining necessary permits and re-establishing oil transportation systems.
- The company will actively evaluate carbon capture and storage (CCS) opportunities.
- Sable will implement its development plan, including infill drilling and step-out opportunities.
- The company will target a conservative leverage profile and an aggressive shareholder return program.
Key Dates
- 1968: Santa Ynez Unit discovered.
- 1969: First leases for the Santa Ynez Unit were granted.
- November 12, 1970: Effective date of the Santa Ynez Unit Agreement.
- 1976: Construction of the Santa Ynez Unit began with Platform Hondo.
- 1981: First production from Platform Hondo.
- 1994: Platform Harmony and Platform Heritage came online.
- June 2015: SYU shut in due to pipeline issue.
- December 31, 2021: Date of the NSAI Report on contingent resources.
- December 31, 2023: Date of Sable's Annual Report on Form 10-K.
- November 13, 2024: Date of common shares outstanding and unrestricted cash balance.
- November 18, 2024: Date of the 8-K filing and presentation materials.
- Q4 2024: Targeted production restart date for the SYU.
- January 1, 2026: Date by which production must restart to avoid asset reversion.
Keywords
Filings with Classifications
Equity Offering Update
- The offering size was increased from a previously announced $200.0 million of shares, indicating higher demand than initially anticipated.
- The underwriters fully exercised their option to purchase an additional 1,304,346 shares, demonstrating strong investor interest and confidence in the offering.
- The company successfully raised approximately $295.0 million in gross proceeds, providing significant capital for its stated corporate purposes.
Equity Offering Update
- Sable Offshore Corp. completed an upsized underwritten public offering of 10,000,000 shares of common stock.
- The shares were sold at a public offering price of $29.50 per share.
- The gross proceeds from the offering amounted to approximately $295.0 million.
- The net proceeds, estimated at $283.2 million, are intended for capital expenditures, working capital, and general corporate purposes.
- The offering included the full exercise of the underwriters' 30-day option to purchase an additional 1,304,346 shares.
Current Report on Form 8-K
- The updated 2H25 production guidance of 40,000-50,000 BOE/D is significantly higher than the prior guidance of 20,000-25,000 BOE/D.
- Initial well tests at Harmony Platform have exceeded expectations.
Earnings Release
- The company reported a net loss of $109.5 million, indicating worse than expected financial performance.
Earnings Release
- The Santa Ynez Unit assets have been non-producing since June 2015 due to a pipeline shutdown, representing a significant delay in production.
Quarterly Report
- The company reported a net loss of $109.5 million, indicating worse than expected financial performance.
- The company's ability to continue as a going concern is subject to substantial doubt, indicating worse than expected operational outlook.
Annual Report
- The company faces regulatory hurdles and legal proceedings that could delay or prevent the restart of production.
Annual Report
- The company has a history of net losses and negative cash flows from operations.
- The company is not currently generating revenue from its SYU Assets.
- The company is reliant on external funding to continue operations.
8-K Filing
- The company is facing a Cease and Desist Order from the California Coastal Commission.
- The company is involved in a lawsuit with the California Coastal Commission.
- The company's pipeline repair operations could be delayed or halted.
8-K Filing
- The dispute with the California Coastal Commission could potentially delay Sable's pipeline repair operations.
Litigation Update
- The lawsuit and subsequent remand introduce uncertainty regarding the timeline for restarting production at the Santa Ynez Unit.
- The potential for third-party interference could further delay the restart of operations.
Quarterly Report and Regulatory Update
- The California Coastal Commission asked Sable to stop all work in the Coastal Zone at the end of September, causing delays in pipeline maintenance and repair.
- The need to agree on an interim work plan with the CCC to fill open excavations is causing further delays.
Quarterly Report and Regulatory Update
- The company reported a significant net loss of $255.6 million, which is worse than expected for a company of this size.
- The ongoing issues with the California Coastal Commission and the potential reversion of assets to ExxonMobil are also worse than expected.
Quarterly Report
- The company reported a significant net loss, driven by high operating expenses and changes in the fair value of warrant liabilities.
- The company's assets are not currently producing, leading to a lack of revenue and substantial operating losses.
- There is substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern.
Quarterly Report
- The company completed a second private placement of shares, raising $150 million.
- The company received $72.5 million from warrant exercises.
- The company may need to raise additional capital if its cost estimates for restarting production are insufficient.
S-1 Filing
- The document details the issuance of 7,500,000 shares of Common Stock in a private placement (Second PIPE Investment) for an aggregate purchase price of $150,000,000.
Private Placement Announcement
- Sable Offshore Corp. raised approximately $150 million through a private placement.
- The company issued approximately 7.5 million new shares of common stock to investors.
- The shares were sold at a price of $20.00 per share.
Quarterly Report
- The company reported a significant net loss of $165.4 million, which is worse than expected for a company in the process of restarting production.
Quarterly Report
- The company has a new deadline of July 1, 2025, to implement its 2021 Risk Analysis and Implementation Plan, which is a delay from the original timeline.
- The company is facing delays in obtaining permits from the County of Santa Barbara.
Quarterly Report
- The company's restart of production is contingent on regulatory approvals and repairs, which introduces uncertainty and potential delays.
- The OSFM approved PPC's extension request for the implementation of the 2021 Plan, setting a new deadline of July 1, 2025.
Quarterly Report
- The company reported a significant net loss of $165.4 million for the quarter and $345.5 million for the period from February 14, 2024 to June 30, 2024.
- Operating expenses were substantial at $62.2 million for the quarter and $221.4 million for the period from February 14, 2024 to June 30, 2024.
- The company recorded a large change in fair value of warrant liabilities of $81.2 million for the quarter and $79.4 million for the period from February 14, 2024 to June 30, 2024.
- There is substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern.
Quarterly Report
- The company may need to raise additional capital if its cost estimates for restarting production are less than the actual amounts needed.
- There is no assurance that new financing will be available on commercially acceptable terms.
Current Report
- The restart of operations has been delayed and is now expected in late third quarter 2024 or early fourth quarter 2024.
Quarterly Report
- The company increased its Total Net Estimated Contingent Resources by 21% to 646 MMboe, with a PV-10 value of $10.0 billion, which is a significant improvement over previous estimates.
Quarterly Report
- The company reported a significant net loss of $180.1 million, which is worse than expected for a company that has just completed a business combination and is preparing to restart production.
- The high general and administrative expenses, driven by a $70 million legal settlement and $46.4 million in share-based compensation, contributed to the worse than expected results.
Quarterly Report
- The company raised $440.2 million through a private placement of common stock.
- The company secured a $625 million senior secured term loan from Exxon Mobil.
Amended 8-K Filing
- The closing date of the purchase agreement was delayed from June 30, 2022, to December 31, 2022, and then to February 1, 2024, and finally closed on February 14, 2024.
- The restart of production is contingent upon regulatory approvals and the timing of ongoing construction repair efforts, which could lead to further delays.
Amended 8-K Filing
- The company raised $440.2 million through a private placement of shares at $10.00 per share.
- The company may need to raise additional capital if the costs of restarting production exceed estimates.
Amended 8-K Filing
- The company reported a significant net loss of $1.5 billion in 2022 due to a $1.4 billion impairment, indicating worse than expected financial performance.
- The company has a going concern warning, indicating worse than expected financial stability.
Annual Report
- The company may need to raise additional capital to fund the restart of production if its current cash on hand is insufficient.
- The company may issue additional equity or debt securities in the future, which may dilute existing stockholders or introduce restrictive covenants.
Annual Report
- The company's independent auditor has expressed substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.
- The company has a working capital deficit of $16.4 million as of December 31, 2023.
Merger Announcement
- The company initially secured a $520 million PIPE investment.
- One investor was unable to fund $125 million of their commitment.
- The company secured an additional $53 million in PIPE investments to partially offset the shortfall.
- The company will continue to seek additional investments to provide liquidity after the merger.
Merger Financing Update
- Flame Acquisition Corp. has secured $520 million in PIPE financing.
- The financing involves the sale of 52 million shares of Class A common stock at $10.00 per share.
- The PIPE includes $100 million from new Flame PIPE investors and $420 million from Holdco PIPE investors.
- The Holdco PIPE investors will purchase 34.85 million shares of Holdco Class B shares at $10.00 per share.
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