8-K: PEDEVCO Reports Record Preliminary Q4, Full Year 2025 Results

PEDEVCO Corp. announced record preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, driven by the transformational Juniper merger.

Summary

• Preliminary Q4 2025 revenue is estimated between $22.5 million and $23.5 million, representing approximately a 117% increase compared to $10.6 million in Q4 2024.
• Preliminary Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA is estimated between $14.5 million and $15.5 million, representing approximately a 196% increase compared to $5.1 million in Q4 2024.
• Preliminary Q4 2025 average daily production grew approximately 141% to 5.0 5.5 Mboe/d from 2.2 Mboe/d in Q4 2024.
• Preliminary full year 2025 revenue is estimated between $45.0 million and $46.0 million, an increase of approximately 15% from $39.6 million in FY 2024.
• Preliminary full year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA is estimated between $26.5 million and $27.5 million, an increase of approximately 18% from $22.9 million in FY 2024.
• Preliminary full year 2025 average daily production grew approximately 34% to 2.4 2.5 Mboe/d from 1.8 Mboe/d in FY 2024.
• The Juniper merger, which closed on October 31, 2025, significantly expanded the company's Rockies footprint, production base, and earnings power.
• The 2025 development program added approximately 1,800 barrels per day of incremental production, a 123% increase compared to standalone production prior to the Juniper transaction.
• Many new wells came online late in Q4 2025 and early 2026, positioning the company for meaningfully higher production levels in the new year.

Sentiment

Score: 8

Explanation: StockSavvy.ai views this as a highly positive announcement due to the significant preliminary growth metrics across revenue, EBITDA, and production, driven by a successful acquisition and development program. The "preliminary" nature introduces a slight caution, preventing a perfect score.

Positives

• Reported significant year-over-year growth in Q4 2025 revenue (over 2x), Adjusted EBITDA (nearly 3x), and average daily production (~140%).
• The Juniper merger, closed in Q4 2025, substantially expanded the company's operational scale and earnings capacity, with Q4 results reflecting only a partial quarter's contribution from acquired assets.
• The 2025 development program successfully added approximately 1,800 barrels per day of incremental production, representing a 123% increase compared to standalone production prior to the Juniper transaction.
• The company is well-positioned for 2026 with higher production levels and anticipated post-merger operational synergies, expected to lead to a substantial increase in earnings power.

Negatives

• The financial results are preliminary, unaudited, and based on current estimates, making them subject to potential material adjustments during the final financial statement closing procedures.
• Undue reliance should not be placed on this preliminary data as final audited results could differ.

Risks

• Preliminary financial results are subject to change and may differ materially from final audited results due to the completion of year-end financial and accounting procedures.
• The company's financial statements require significant judgments in a number of areas during the closing process, which could lead to adjustments to preliminary estimates.
• Forward-looking statements contained in the press release involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from projections.

Future Outlook

The company anticipates a "step-change in financial performance" for 2026, expecting substantially increased earnings power due to higher production levels and the realization of meaningful post-merger operational synergies.

Management Comments

• "2025 was a transformational year for PEDEVCO as we executed our development program and closed the Juniper merger in the fourth quarter, significantly expanding our Rockies footprint, production base and earnings power."
• "Our fourth quarter results began to reflect the new scale of the business, with revenue more than doubling to approximately $23 million and Adjusted EBITDA nearly tripling to approximately $15 million."
• "Importantly, these results reflect only a partial quarter of contribution from the acquired assets following the October 31 closing, demonstrating the significant earnings capacity of the combined platform going forward."
• "Alongside the merger, our 2025 development program materially expanded our production base, adding approximately 1,800 barrels per day of incremental production – a 123% increase compared to our standalone production prior to the Juniper transaction."
• "With many of these wells coming online late in the fourth quarter and into early 2026, PEDEVCO is entering the year with meaningfully higher production levels and a deep inventory of development opportunities."
• "As we look ahead, we believe the work completed in 2025 has positioned PEDEVCO for a step-change in financial performance. With higher production levels and the realization of meaningful post-merger operational synergies, we expect the Company’s earnings power to increase substantially in 2026."

Industry Context

StockSavvy.ai notes that PEDEVCO's strategic focus on the Rocky Mountain region, particularly the D-J Basin and Powder River Basin, aligns with ongoing interest in domestic energy production. The successful integration of the Juniper merger and the expansion of its production base position the company to capitalize on regional energy demand and potentially benefit from favorable commodity price environments, similar to other mid-tier E&P companies expanding through M&A in established basins.

Comparison to Industry Standards

• The reported growth rates for Q4 2025 revenue (~117%) and Adjusted EBITDA (~196%) are exceptionally strong for an established energy producer, significantly outpacing typical organic growth rates seen across the broader E&P sector.
• The 123% increase in incremental production from the development program is a robust indicator of successful capital deployment, often exceeding the average production growth rates of many publicly traded peers who might see 10-30% annual growth from development.
• The "partial quarter contribution" from the Juniper merger suggests that the full impact of the acquisition will be even more substantial in future reporting periods, potentially leading to continued outperformance relative to peers not undergoing similar transformational M&A.

Stakeholder Impact

• Shareholders are likely to benefit from the significant growth in revenue, EBITDA, and production, which could lead to increased share value and enhanced long-term investment prospects.
• Employees may see increased opportunities and job security due to the company's expansion through the Juniper merger and development program.
• Customers could benefit from increased production capacity, potentially leading to more reliable energy supply.
• Creditors may view the improved financial performance and earnings power as a positive indicator of the company's ability to service its debt obligations.

Next Steps

• Host a conference call on Wednesday, April 1, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time to discuss final financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, and provide a 2026 financial outlook.
• File the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025, which will contain the final audited financial statements.

Key Dates

Recommendation

The preliminary results indicate a strong operational and financial transformation for PEDEVCO, with substantial growth in key metrics like revenue, EBITDA, and production. The successful integration of the Juniper merger and the positive outlook for 2026, driven by higher production and synergies, suggest significant upside potential. While the results are preliminary, the magnitude of the reported improvements warrants a "buy" recommendation for investors seeking exposure to a growing energy producer.

Keywords

PEDEVCO, PED, energy, oil and gas, preliminary financial results, Q4 2025, full year 2025, Juniper merger, production growth, revenue growth, Adjusted EBITDA, D-J Basin, Powder River Basin, Permian Basin, Rocky Mountain region