8-K: Murphy USA Presents Growth Strategy, 2026 Guidance

Murphy USA Inc. presented its strategic framework, organic growth plans, and 2026 financial guidance at the Raymond James 2026 Institutional Investors Conference.

Summary

• Murphy USA operates over 1,800 locations across 27 states, serving nearly 2.0 million customers daily.
• The company is accelerating its new store program, with new builds continuing to be accretive to chain comparisons and driving returns above business case expectations.
• Merchandise growth is fueled by expanding assortment and new store initiatives, with a focus on diversifying the mix to non-nicotine categories while strengthening leadership in nicotine.
• Total Store Operating Expense grew by 5.8% in 2025 to $763 million, driven by new and bigger stores, with APSM OpEx increasing 3.1% to $36.1K.
• Fuel performance remained strong in 2025, growing volume by 28 million gallons and holding margins flat despite a low volatility and price environment.
• The company provided 2026 guidance including 45 to 55 new stores, up to 30 raze and rebuilds, retail fuel volume per store (APSM) of 233 to 237K gallons, merchandise contribution of $890 to $900 million, and capital expenditures of $475 to $525 million.
• Projected Adjusted EBITDA (Base SS+NTIs) is $1.00 billion for 2026, growing to $1.12 billion by 2030.

Sentiment

Score: 7

Explanation: StockSavvy.ai views this as a moderately positive update, highlighting strong organic growth and effective capital allocation through share repurchases, though competitive market dynamics and projected same-store fuel volume declines present headwinds.

Positives

• New store builds are performing strongly, delivering returns above business case expectations (16% unlevered/after-tax ROIC for 2021 class, ramping down to 7% for 2024 class in Year 1).
• The company is accelerating its new store program, targeting 2.5-3.5% new stores per year.
• Merchandise growth is driven by expanding assortment and new store initiatives, with a strategic shift towards non-nicotine categories.
• Fuel volume grew by 28 million gallons in 2025, and margins were held flat despite a challenging low-volatility and low-price environment.
• The company saved customers over $500 million in 2025 through promotional activities.
• Projected Adjusted EBITDA (Base SS+NTIs) is expected to grow from $1.00 billion in 2026 to $1.12 billion in 2030, with an 'Upside' scenario reaching $1.29 billion by 2030.
• Share repurchases have significantly reduced shares outstanding by 60% since the 2013 spin-off, from 46.8 million to 18.8 million in 2025.

Negatives

• Retail fuel volume per store (SS YoY%) is guided to decline by (3.0)% to (1.0)% in 2026.
• Competitive intrusion is increasing, with approximately 600 major convenience stores opening within 3 miles of Murphy USA locations since 2020.
• The 'Emerging Phase' of market evolution, characterized by new capacity and intense price-based competition, leads to margin compression and can negatively impact fuel volume and contribution.
• Total Store Operating Expense increased by 5.8% in 2025, driven by new and bigger stores, and is projected to increase further in 2026 to $37.0K to $38.0K APSM.

Risks

• Volatility and level of crude oil and gasoline prices.
• Pace and success of the expansion plan.
• Relationship with Walmart.
• Political and regulatory uncertainty.
• Ability to realize projected synergies from the acquisition of QuickChek and successfully expand food and beverage offerings.
• Uncontrollable natural hazards.
• Adverse market conditions or tax consequences.

Future Outlook

Murphy USA projects continued organic growth with 45 to 55 new stores and up to 30 raze and rebuilds in 2026. The company anticipates merchandise contribution of $890 to $900 million and Adjusted EBITDA (Base SS+NTIs) to reach $1.00 billion in 2026, growing to $1.12 billion by 2030, with an upside potential of $1.29 billion by 2030. Store refreshes with modern branding are expected to open in the second half of 2026.

Management Comments

• Our growth profile is ramping, which will jumpstart EBITDA.
• We are improving store performance and productivity.
• Share repurchase remains a driver of value creation.
• Organic growth remains our primary driver of value creation.
• New stores are delivering strong performance.
• We are continuing to accelerate our new store program.
• Invest free cash flow to enhance long-term shareholder returns.

Industry Context

StockSavvy.ai notes that Murphy USA operates in a large, fragmented convenience store market with 152,000 stores in the U.S. and 160 million daily transactions. The company's focus on organic growth and cost leadership positions it to capitalize on the industry's long-tail nature, where 63% of c-stores are independent smaller operators. The increasing competitive intrusion, with approximately 600 new major convenience stores opening within 3 miles of Murphy USA locations since 2020, highlights the intensifying competition in the sector, which could pressure margins and volumes, particularly in 'Emerging Phase' markets.

Comparison to Industry Standards

• Murphy USA's 2021 new build class achieved a 16% unlevered/after-tax ROIC, which is a strong return for retail real estate development, often exceeding typical industry benchmarks for new convenience store builds which can range from 10-15% depending on market and format.
• The company's 60% reduction in shares outstanding since its 2013 spin-off (from 46.8 million to 18.8 million in 2025) demonstrates an aggressive and consistent capital return strategy through share repurchases, which is a higher rate of reduction compared to many mature retail companies.
• Murphy USA's ability to grow fuel volume by 28 million gallons in 2025 and hold margins flat in a low-volatility, low-price environment suggests a competitive advantage in fuel pricing and supply chain management compared to smaller, less integrated operators.
• The company's 'EDLP/EDLC' (Everyday Low Price/Everyday Low Cost) economics are a common strategy among large-scale retailers like Walmart (its former parent) and other discount-focused convenience store chains, aiming to drive high volume through competitive pricing.

Stakeholder Impact

• Shareholders: Potential for enhanced long-term returns through organic growth, increased EBITDA, and continued share repurchases. Risks include market volatility and competitive pressures impacting profitability.
• Customers: Benefit from competitive pricing (EDLP), promotional savings (over $500M in 2025), and an expanding network of new and refreshed stores with diversified merchandise.
• Employees: Investments in people and technology, and efforts to simplify store operations, could impact employee roles and productivity. Home Office restructuring is mentioned.
• Suppliers: Diversifying merchandise mix and expanding assortment could create new opportunities for non-nicotine suppliers.

Next Steps

• Accelerate new store program, targeting 2.5-3.5% new stores per year.
• Continue to diversify merchandise mix, focusing on non-nicotine categories while maintaining nicotine leadership.
• Invest in technology to drive productivity improvements and incremental efficiencies.
• Open refreshed store designs with modern branding in 2H 2026.
• Invest free cash flow to enhance long-term shareholder returns, including continued share repurchases.
• Focus on store labor model refresh and shrink task force to simplify operations.
• Expand self-maintenance abilities and focus on revenue-generating assets for store maintenance.
• Continue Home Office restructuring and scaling G&A with store growth.

Key Dates

Recommendation

The filing outlines a consistent strategy with predictable organic growth and strong capital allocation through share repurchases. While new store performance and merchandise diversification are positive, the projected decline in same-store fuel volume and increasing competitive intrusion suggest a balanced outlook. The guidance provided is largely in line with ongoing operations, indicating no immediate catalysts for significant upside or downside, thus a 'hold' recommendation is appropriate for investors seeking stable, long-term value.

Keywords

Murphy USA, MUSA, Convenience Stores, Fuel Retail, Investor Conference, Organic Growth, Merchandise Mix, Cost Leadership, EBITDA, Capital Expenditures, New Stores, Retail Fuel Volume, Share Repurchase, QuickChek, Financial Guidance