8-K: Hancock Whitney Updates Q4 2025 Guidance, Share Buyback

Hancock Whitney Corporation provides updated mid-fourth quarter 2025 financial guidance and a share repurchase program update ahead of its participation in Piper Sandler's Financial Services Conference.

Summary

• Repurchased 2,100,000 shares of common stock quarter-to-date (as of 11/7/25) at a weighted average price of $57.33.
• Total shares repurchased since program inception: 3,862,500 shares.
• Expects to repurchase the remaining 443,700 authorized shares during the fourth quarter of 2025.
• Loans (EOP) are expected to be up low single digits, driven by Commercial Non-RE and Healthcare, partially offset by CRE payoffs.
• Deposits (EOP) are expected to be up low single digits due to seasonality.
• Net Interest Income (te) and NIM (te) are expected to be up 2%-3%, based on one additional 25 bp rate cut in December 2025.
• Adjusted Pre-Provision, Net Revenue (PPNR) is expected to be down 1%-2% quarter-over-quarter, but up 5%-6% from FY24 adjusted PPNR, with a bias to the upper end.
• Reserve for Credit Losses; Net charge-offs guidance: 0.15% 0.25%.
• Noninterest Income is expected to be down 2%-3% due to seasonality and lower specialty fees (including government shutdown impact on SBA fees).
• Adjusted Noninterest Expense is expected to be up 2%-3% due to organic growth plan investments including hiring of additional bankers and opening financial centers.
• Effective Tax Rate guidance remains unchanged at 20% 21%.
• Efficiency Ratio guidance remains unchanged at 55% 56%.

Sentiment

Score: 7

Explanation: The filing presents a generally positive outlook with expected growth in key banking metrics like loans, deposits, and net interest income, alongside a continued share repurchase program. While there are some anticipated quarter-over-quarter declines in PPNR and noninterest income due to seasonality and specific factors, the overall full-year PPNR guidance remains strong, indicating a healthy underlying business. The risks mentioned are standard for the industry and are not presented as new or heightened concerns.

Positives

• Continued share repurchase program, with 2,100,000 shares bought back quarter-to-date at an average of $57.33.
• Expectation to complete the remaining 443,700 authorized shares repurchase in Q4 2025.
• Projected low single-digit growth in both loans and deposits for Q4 2025.
• Net Interest Income (te) and NIM (te) expected to increase by 2%-3%.
• Adjusted Pre-Provision, Net Revenue (PPNR) expected to be up 5%-6% from FY24, indicating strong underlying profitability.
• Efficiency Ratio guidance remains stable at 55%-56%.

Negatives

• Adjusted Pre-Provision, Net Revenue (PPNR) is expected to be down 1%-2% quarter-over-quarter.
• Noninterest Income is expected to decrease by 2%-3% due to seasonality and lower specialty fees, including the impact of a government shutdown on SBA fees.
• Adjusted Noninterest Expense is projected to increase by 2%-3% due to organic growth investments.
• Loan growth in Commercial Real Estate (CRE) is expected to be partially offset by payoffs.

Risks

• Impact of current and future economic conditions, including effects of a prolonged government shutdown, declines in the real estate market, tariffs or trade wars (reduced consumer spending, lower economic growth or recession, reduced demand for U.S. exports, supply chain disruptions, decreased demand for banking products and services).
• High unemployment, inflationary pressures, increasing insurance costs, fluctuations in interest rates, including the impact of changes in interest rates on financial projections, models and guidance, and slowdowns in economic growth, as well as the financial stress on borrowers.
• General economic business conditions in local markets.
• Federal Reserve action with respect to interest rates.
• Effects of war or other conflicts, acts of terrorism, climate change, the impact of natural or man-made disasters.
• The adequacy of the enterprise risk management framework.
• Potential claims, damages, penalties, fines and reputational damage resulting from pending or future litigation, regulatory proceedings, assessments, and enforcement actions, as well as the impact of negative developments affecting the banking industry and the resulting media coverage.
• The potential impact of current (including Sabal Trust Company) or future business combinations on performance and financial condition, including the ability to successfully integrate the businesses.
• The effectiveness of derivative financial instruments and hedging activities to manage risks.
• Increased cybersecurity risks, including potential business disruptions or financial losses.
• The adequacy of internal controls over financial and non-financial reporting.
• The financial impact of regulatory requirements and tax reform legislation.

Future Outlook

Hancock Whitney anticipates low single-digit growth in both loans and deposits for the fourth quarter of 2025, with net interest income and net interest margin expected to increase by 2%-3%, assuming one additional 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025. Adjusted Pre-Provision, Net Revenue is projected to be down 1%-2% quarter-over-quarter but up 5%-6% from FY24. Noninterest income is expected to decline due to seasonality and lower specialty fees, while adjusted noninterest expense will rise due to organic growth investments. The company plans to complete its remaining share repurchase authorization during the quarter.

Management Comments

• No direct quotes from company management are provided in the filing. Michael M. Achary, Chief Financial Officer, signed the 8-K.

Industry Context

The banking industry is currently navigating a dynamic interest rate environment, with the Federal Reserve's actions on rates significantly influencing net interest margins. The expectation of a December 2025 rate cut suggests a potential easing of monetary policy, which could impact loan demand and deposit pricing. Seasonal deposit growth is typical for banks. The focus on organic growth, including hiring bankers and opening financial centers, indicates a strategy to expand market share despite potential headwinds from noninterest income seasonality and government shutdown impacts on specific fee categories like SBA loans. Credit quality remains a key focus, with the company providing guidance on reserves and net charge-offs, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties.

Comparison to Industry Standards

• The filing does not provide specific comparisons to comparable companies, projects, or results within the industry.

Stakeholder Impact

• Shareholders: Benefit from the ongoing share repurchase program, which can enhance shareholder value by reducing share count. Positive guidance on NII and PPNR suggests potential for continued profitability and dividends.
• Employees: Potential for increased hiring of additional bankers as part of organic growth plans.
• Customers: Expansion through new financial centers and additional bankers could improve access to services. Loan growth indicates continued lending activity.

Next Steps

• Participation in Piper Sandler's Financial Services Conference on November 11, 2025.
• Repurchase of the remaining 443,700 authorized common stock shares during the fourth quarter of 2025.
• Continued investments in organic growth plans, including hiring additional bankers and opening financial centers.

Key Dates

Recommendation

The filing provides an expected outlook for Q4 2025, with stable to slightly positive trends in core banking metrics like loans, deposits, and net interest income, supported by a continued share repurchase program. While the full-year PPNR guidance is strong, the quarter-over-quarter declines in PPNR and noninterest income, though attributed to seasonality, suggest a neutral short-term catalyst. The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut is already factored into guidance. Given the expected nature of the results and the absence of significant positive or negative surprises, a "hold" recommendation is appropriate for investors awaiting further clarity on economic conditions and future performance beyond the current quarter's guidance.

Keywords

Hancock Whitney, HWC, banking, financial services, regional bank, Q4 2025 guidance, share repurchase, net interest income, deposits, loans, credit quality, noninterest expense, efficiency ratio, PPNR, investor presentation