8-K: Atlantic Union Bankshares Outlines 2026 Growth Strategy

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation provides an investor presentation detailing its strategic priorities, strong financial performance, and 2026 financial outlook, including organic growth and North Carolina expansion plans.

Summary

• Q4 2025 annualized loan growth was approximately 6.3%.
• Non-interest bearing deposits constituted 22% of total deposits at December 31, 2025.
• The Loan/Deposit ratio stood at 91.2% as of December 31, 2025.
• Successfully converted core systems of the Sandy Spring acquisition over the weekend of October 11, 2025, and concurrently closed 5 branches.
• Planned organic expansion in North Carolina in 2026, including 10 new branches (7 in Raleigh, 3 in Wilmington) and 86 off-site ATMs over the next 3 years.
• The full year 2026 outlook projects loans between $29.0 and $30.0 billion and deposits between $31.5 and $32.5 billion.
• The 2026 credit outlook anticipates an Allowance for Credit Loss (ACL) to loans ratio of approximately 115-120 basis points and a net charge-off ratio of 10-15 basis points.
• Net Interest Income (FTE) for 2026 is projected to be ~$1.350 $1.375 billion, with a Net Interest Margin (FTE) of ~3.90% 4.00%.
• Noninterest income for 2026 is estimated at ~$220 $230 million, and adjusted operating noninterest expense (excluding amortization of intangible assets) at ~$750 $760 million.
• Amortization of intangible assets for 2026 is expected to be ~$60 million.
• Tangible Book Value Growth Per Share is projected to increase by ~12-15% in 2026.
• Capital ratios are well above regulatory well-capitalized levels as of December 31, 2025.
• The company paid a common stock dividend of 37 cents per share in Q4 2025, an 8.8% increase from the third quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2024 dividend amount.
• Total liquidity sources amounted to $14.5 billion, with a liquidity coverage ratio of uninsured/uncollateralized deposits of ~152% as of December 31, 2025.
• The total securities portfolio was $5.1 billion with a total unrealized loss of $323.1 million as of December 31, 2025.

Sentiment

Score: 8

Explanation: StockSavvy.ai views this filing positively due to strong Q4 2025 performance, robust capital and liquidity, a clear organic growth strategy, and an optimistic 2026 financial outlook with significant tangible book value growth projected.

Positives

• Strong Q4 2025 annualized loan growth of 6.3% indicates robust demand and effective lending strategies.
• Healthy lending pipelines, which are higher than at the start of Q4 2025, suggest continued loan growth momentum.
• Solid balance sheet and capital levels, with all capital ratios well above regulatory well-capitalized minimums, demonstrate financial stability.
• Q4 2025 adjusted operating return on tangible common equity of 22.1% and 20.4% for Full Year 2025 highlight strong profitability.
• Q4 2025 adjusted operating return on assets of 1.50% and 1.33% for Full Year 2025 reflect efficient asset utilization.
• Q4 2025 adjusted operating efficiency ratio (FTE) of 47.8% and 49.7% for Full Year 2025 indicates improved operational efficiency.
• Very low Q4 2025 net charge-offs at 1 basis point of total average loans held for investment annualized points to excellent asset quality and effective risk management.
• The common stock dividend increased by 8.8% in Q4 2025 to 37 cents per share, signaling confidence in future earnings and commitment to shareholder returns.
• A strong liquidity position with total sources of $14.5 billion and a 152% liquidity coverage ratio for uninsured/uncollateralized deposits provides ample financial flexibility.
• Planned organic expansion in North Carolina with 10 new branches and 86 off-site ATMs over the next 3 years targets high-growth markets for future expansion.
• Projected 12-15% tangible book value growth per share for 2026 indicates strong expected value creation for shareholders.

Negatives

• The total securities portfolio held an unrealized loss of $323.1 million as of December 31, 2025.
• Accumulated other comprehensive loss (AOCI) was $(256.087) million for Atlantic Union Bankshares and $(256.132) million for Atlantic Union Bank as of December 31, 2025.
• GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS) available to common shareholders decreased from $3.26 in 2021 to $2.03 in 2025.
• GAAP Return on Equity (ROE) declined from 9.68% in 2021 to 6.16% in 2025.
• GAAP Return on Assets (ROA) decreased from 1.32% in 2021 to 0.80% in 2025.
• The GAAP Efficiency Ratio increased from 57.46% in 2022 to 65.16% in 2025, suggesting a decrease in efficiency under GAAP reporting.

Risks

• Market interest rates and their related impacts on macroeconomic conditions, customer and client behavior, funding costs, and loan and securities portfolios.
• Economic conditions, including inflation and recessionary conditions and their related impacts on economic growth and customer and client behavior.
• U.S. and global trade policies and tensions, including changes in, or the imposition of, tariffs and/or trade barriers and the economic impacts, volatility, and uncertainty resulting therefrom, and geopolitical instability.
• Volatility in the financial services sector, including failures or rumors of failures of other depository institutions, along with actions taken by governmental agencies to address such turmoil, and the effects on the ability of depository institutions, including us, to attract and retain depositors and to borrow or raise capital.
• Legislative or regulatory changes and requirements, including changes in federal, state, or local tax laws and changes impacting the rulemaking, supervision, examination, and enforcement priorities of the federal banking agencies.
• The sufficiency of liquidity and changes in our capital position.
• General economic and financial market conditions in the United States generally and particularly in the markets in which we operate and which our loans are concentrated, including the effects of declines in real estate values, an increase in unemployment levels, U.S. fiscal debt, budget and tax matters, U.S. government shutdowns, and slowdowns in economic growth.
• The impact of purchase accounting with respect to the Sandy Spring acquisition, or any change in the assumptions used regarding the assets acquired and liabilities assumed to determine the fair value and credit marks.
• The possibility that the anticipated benefits of our acquisition activity, including our acquisitions of Sandy Spring and American National, including anticipated cost savings and strategic gains, are not realized when expected or at all, including as a result of the strength of the economy, competitive factors in the areas where we do business, or as a result of other unexpected factors or events.
• Potential adverse reactions or changes to business or employee relationships, including those resulting from our acquisitions of Sandy Spring and American National.
• Our ability to identify, recruit, and retain key employees.
• Monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policies of the U.S. government, including policies of the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve.
• The quality or composition of our loan or investment portfolios and changes in these portfolios.
• Demand for loan products and financial services in our market areas.
• Our ability to manage our growth or implement our growth strategy.
• The effectiveness of expense reduction plans.
• The introduction of new lines of business or new products and services.
• Real estate values in our lending area.
• Changes in accounting principles, standards, rules, and interpretations, and the related impact on our financial statements.
• An insufficient Allowance for Credit Loss (ACL) or volatility in the ACL resulting from the CECL methodology, either alone or as that may be affected by changing economic conditions, credit concentrations, inflation, changing interest rates, or other factors.
• Concentrations of loans secured by real estate, particularly commercial real estate.
• The effectiveness of our credit processes and management of our credit risk.
• Our ability to compete in the market for financial services and increased competition from fintech companies.
• Technological risks and developments, and cyber threats, attacks, or events.
• Operational, technological, cultural, regulatory, legal, credit, and other risks associated with the exploration, consummation, and integration of potential future acquisitions, whether involving stock or cash consideration.
• The potential adverse effects of unusual and infrequently occurring events, such as weather-related disasters, terrorist acts, geopolitical conflicts or public health events (such as pandemics), and of governmental and societal responses thereto.
• Performance by our counterparties or vendors.
• Deposit flows.
• The availability of financing and the terms thereof.
• The level of prepayments on loans and mortgage-backed securities.
• Actual or potential claims, damages, and fines related to litigation or government actions, which may result in, among other things, additional costs, fines, penalties, restrictions on our business activities, reputational harm, or other adverse consequences.
• Any event or development that would cause us to conclude that there was an impairment of any asset, including intangible assets, such as goodwill.

Future Outlook

Atlantic Union Bankshares projects full year 2026 loans to be between $29.0 and $30.0 billion and deposits between $31.5 and $32.5 billion. The company anticipates an Allowance for Credit Loss (ACL) to loans ratio of approximately 115-120 basis points and a net charge-off ratio of 10-15 basis points. Net Interest Income (FTE) is expected to be in the range of $1.350-$1.375 billion, with a Net Interest Margin (FTE) of 3.90%-4.00%. Noninterest income is projected at $220-$230 million, and adjusted operating noninterest expense (excluding amortization of intangible assets) at $750-$760 million. The company forecasts 12-15% growth in tangible book value per share for 2026, assuming two 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cuts in April and September 2026, moderate GDP growth, and a stable economy in its branch footprint with unemployment rates remaining below the national average.

Management Comments

• We Believe AUB Was Built For This Moment.
• We have invested the capital, built the platform, and assembled the team. Now is the time to demonstrate the power of what we have built delivering sustainable, top-tier performance and returns.
• Our capital management objectives are to maintain designation as a well capitalized institution and ensure capital levels are commensurate with the Company's risk profile, capital stress test projections, and strategic plan objectives.

Industry Context

StockSavvy.ai notes that Atlantic Union Bankshares is positioning itself as a leading regional bank in the Mid-Atlantic, Maryland, and Virginia markets, aiming to capitalize on organic growth opportunities and strategic investments. The planned expansion into North Carolina, particularly Raleigh and Wilmington, aligns with a broader trend of regional banks seeking growth in high-growth Southern markets. The focus on deepening client relationships and leveraging scale efficiently reflects a common strategy among regional players to differentiate against larger national banks and smaller community banks, especially in a volatile interest rate environment.

Comparison to Industry Standards

• Atlantic Union Bankshares is identified as the #1 largest regional bank in the Mid-Atlantic, Maryland, and Virginia based on deposit market share, among U.S. banks with less than $100 billion in assets.
• The company highlights 'PEER-LEADING PERFORMANCE' and a commitment to 'top-tier financial performance.'
• In Virginia, Atlantic Union Bankshares holds the #4 rank for deposits among all institutions ($20,447 million, 8.9% market share) and the #1 rank among Virginia-headquartered banks ($20,447 million, 23.9% market share).
• In Maryland, Atlantic Union Bankshares ranks #7 for deposits ($9,628 million, 5.4% market share).
• In North Carolina, Atlantic Union Bankshares ranks #26 for deposits ($892 million, 0.4% market share), indicating significant growth opportunity in this market compared to larger players like Truist Financial Corp. ($42,730 million, 18.0% market share) and Wells Fargo & Co. ($38,469 million, 16.2% market share).
• The company's Q4 2025 adjusted operating return on tangible common equity of 22.1% and adjusted operating return on assets of 1.50% are presented as indicators of strong performance relative to peers, though specific peer comparisons are not detailed in the filing.

Legal Proceedings

• Legal reserves associated with a previously disclosed settlement with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) were excluded from adjusted operating measures.

Stakeholder Impact

• Shareholders: Potential for increased shareholder value through organic growth, top-tier returns, earnings growth, tangible book value per share growth, and increased dividends.
• Employees: Integration of the Sandy Spring franchise, potential for new roles with North Carolina expansion, but also severance charges related to headcount reductions from strategic cost savings initiatives and branch closures.
• Customers: Enhanced client experience as a responsive alternative to large national banks, new branch presence in North Carolina, and continued focus on deepening relationships.
• Analysts/Investors: Provides detailed financial outlook and strategic priorities to assist understanding of the company's performance and future direction.

Next Steps

• Fully integrate and execute upon the Sandy Spring acquisition, realizing its expectations and potential.
• Continue to build infrastructure, risk management, workforce, processes, and capabilities to support scaling over time.
• Leverage core franchise to deepen relationships, grow market share, and increase operating leverage, building upon a strong and durable foundation.
• Capitalize on technology to enhance organic growth, increase efficiency and quality, and outpace customer expectations.
• Supplement organic growth with other strategic opportunities to enhance organic growth and transformation, while deprioritizing whole bank acquisitions under the current strategic plan.
• Organic expansion in North Carolina planned in 2026, including opening 10 new branches (7 in Raleigh, 3 in Wilmington) and 86 off-site ATMs over the next 3 years.

Key Dates

Recommendation

The filing presents a compelling case for a strong buy, driven by robust Q4 2025 financial performance, including strong loan growth and excellent asset quality with minimal net charge-offs. The company's capital position is well above regulatory minimums, and its liquidity coverage is strong. The strategic focus on organic growth, particularly the aggressive expansion into high-growth North Carolina markets, coupled with a projected 12-15% tangible book value growth per share for 2026, indicates significant upside potential. The increased common stock dividend further signals management's confidence and commitment to shareholder returns. While unrealized losses on the securities portfolio are noted, the overall financial health, strategic clarity, and positive outlook outweigh this factor for a long-term investor.

Keywords

Atlantic Union Bankshares, AUB, Regional Bank, Financial Services, SEC Filing, Investor Presentation, Banking, Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, Loan Growth, Deposit Growth, Capital Ratios, Asset Quality, Efficiency Ratio, Dividend, Acquisition Integration, Sandy Spring Bancorp, Commercial Real Estate, Liquidity, Financial Outlook, Earnings, Risk Management, Corporate Governance