8-K: Athene Estimates Q3 Alternative Net Investment Income

Athene Holding Ltd. provides preliminary estimates for its third-quarter 2025 alternative net investment income, projecting approximately $325 million pre-tax.

Summary

• Preliminary alternative net investment income for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, is estimated at approximately $325 million pre-tax.
• This equates to an estimated 10% annualized return on total alternative net investments.
• The annualized return on investments in a pooled investment vehicle, which holds the majority of alternative investments, is estimated at 10% for the quarter.
• The annualized return on other alternative investments, including retirement services platforms, is estimated at 8% for the quarter.
• These figures exclude alternative investment income attributable to non-controlling interests.
• Apollo Global Management, Athene's parent company, will host a conference call on November 4, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET to review its Q3 2025 financial results, including information related to Athene.
• The full third-quarter 2025 earnings release and quarterly financial supplement are scheduled for November 4, 2025.

Sentiment

Score: 7

Explanation: The preliminary estimates indicate strong annualized returns on alternative investments, which is positive for the company's financial performance. However, the significant cautionary statements regarding the preliminary nature of the data and the absence of an audit introduce uncertainty, leading to a balanced sentiment.

Positives

• Estimated 10% annualized return on alternative net investments for Q3 2025, indicating strong performance in a key income driver.
• The pooled investment vehicle, representing the large majority of alternative investments, also achieved an estimated 10% annualized return.
• Other alternative investments, including retirement services platforms, contributed an estimated 8% annualized return.

Negatives

• The financial results are preliminary and have not completed financial closing procedures, meaning actual results may differ materially.
• Preliminary results have not been audited, reviewed, compiled, or subjected to any procedures by an independent registered public accounting firm, and no opinion or assurance is expressed.
• Management may identify items requiring material adjustments during the preparation of consolidated financial statements.

Risks

• Actual financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, may differ, possibly materially, from these preliminary estimates due to incomplete financial closing procedures.
• The preliminary financial results have not been audited, reviewed, compiled, or subjected to any procedures by an independent registered public accounting firm, which does not express an opinion or provide assurance.
• During the preparation of consolidated financial statements, items may be identified that require material adjustments to the preliminary financial results.
• Investors should exercise caution in relying on this preliminary information and should not draw inferences regarding financial or operating data not provided.
• Preliminary financial results should not be viewed as a substitute for full financial statements prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP.
• These preliminary financial results should not be interpreted as indicative of future performance.

Future Outlook

Apollo Global Management will host a conference call on November 4, 2025, to discuss the third quarter 2025 financial results and provide further business insights. The full quarterly earnings release is also scheduled for November 4, 2025.

Management Comments

• Management states that the preliminary financial results have been prepared in good faith on a basis consistent with prior periods, but cautions that actual results may differ materially as financial closing procedures are not yet complete.

Industry Context

Athene, as an insurer and annuity provider, relies heavily on investment income to generate 'spread related earnings.' The reported strong preliminary annualized returns on alternative investments suggest effective asset management in a potentially volatile market, which is crucial for maintaining profitability and competitiveness within the insurance sector.

Stakeholder Impact

• Shareholders: Preliminary positive investment income could signal healthy underlying asset performance, but the cautionary notes advise prudence until final results are released.
• Investors: Provides an early look at a key performance indicator, aiding in initial assessment ahead of the full earnings release, but emphasizes the need for caution due to the preliminary nature of the data.

Next Steps

• Apollo Global Management to host a conference call on November 4, 2025, to review Q3 2025 financial results.
• Full Q3 2025 earnings release and quarterly financial supplement scheduled for November 4, 2025.

Key Dates

Recommendation

While the preliminary alternative net investment income estimates show a robust 10% annualized return, which is a positive indicator for Athene's spread-related earnings, the highly preliminary nature of these figures and the explicit disclaimers regarding potential material adjustments and lack of audit necessitate a cautious approach. Investors should await the full, audited Q3 results on November 4, 2025, before making definitive investment decisions. The current information is insufficient to warrant a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation, thus a 'hold' is prudent.

Keywords

Athene Holding, Apollo Global Management, Alternative Investments, Net Investment Income, Q3 2025, Financial Results, Earnings Estimate, Insurance, Annuities, Asset Management