10-Q: Silver ETF Trust NAV Drops 20.5% Amidst Falling Silver Prices

The abrdn Silver ETF Trust reported a significant 20.52% decrease in its Net Asset Value (NAV) for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, primarily driven by a sharp decline in silver prices.

Summary

• The abrdn Silver ETF Trust (SIVR) experienced a 20.52% decrease in its Net Asset Value (NAV) for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, falling from $4,970,486,736 to $3,950,569,678.
• This decline was largely attributed to a 19.12% drop in the price of silver, from $72.69 per ounce on March 31, 2026, to $58.80 per ounce on June 30, 2026.
• The number of outstanding shares also decreased from 71,900,000 to 70,700,000 during the quarter, with 3,200,000 shares created and 4,400,000 shares redeemed.
• The NAV per Share decreased by 19.17% to $55.88.
• For the six-month period ended June 30, 2026, the Trust's NAV decreased by 27.25%, with silver prices falling 18.32% and NAV per Share decreasing by 18.45% to $55.88.
• The Sponsor's Fee, net of waiver, amounted to $3,738,176 for the quarter and $8,047,139 for the six-month period, representing an annualized rate of 0.30% of the Trust's ANAV.

Sentiment

Score: 3

Explanation: StockSavvy.ai views this as a negative sentiment due to the significant decrease in Net Asset Value (NAV) and the price of silver during the period, despite a partial waiver of sponsor fees.

Positives

• The Sponsor continues to voluntarily waive a portion of its fee, reducing the effective Sponsor's Fee to 0.30% from the gross rate of 0.45%.
• Realized gains were recorded from the transfer of silver to pay expenses ($2,053,538 for the quarter, $4,483,544 for six months) and from silver distributed for share redemptions ($139,482,145 for the quarter, $744,294,542 for six months).
• The Trust's disclosure controls and procedures were evaluated as effective as of June 30, 2026.

Negatives

• The Trust's Net Asset Value (NAV) decreased by 20.52% in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, and by 27.25% in the six months ended June 30, 2026.
• The price of silver experienced a significant decline, falling 19.12% in the quarter and 18.32% in the six-month period.
• The NAV per Share decreased by 19.17% in the quarter and 18.45% in the six-month period.
• There was a substantial change in unrealized loss on investment in silver, amounting to $1,084,420,973 for the quarter and $1,575,497,323 for the six-month period.
• The Trust had no cash balances as of June 30, 2026.

Risks

• The Trust's sole business activity is investment in silver, creating a concentration of risk associated with fluctuations in the price of silver.
• Factors affecting silver prices include global supply and demand, investor expectations regarding inflation, currency exchange rates, interest rates, trading activities of hedge funds, and global political or economic events.
• There is no assurance that silver will maintain its long-term value in terms of purchasing power.
• A decline in the price of silver is expected to cause a proportionate decline in the value of an investment in the Shares.

Future Outlook

The Trust's investment objective is for its Shares to reflect the performance of the price of physical silver, less the Trust's expenses. The Trust does not provide specific forward-looking financial guidance beyond its objective to track silver prices.

Management Comments

• The Sponsor believes that, for many investors, the Shares will represent a cost effective investment relative to traditional means of investing in silver.
• The Sponsor has agreed to assume administrative and marketing expenses incurred by the Trust, including the Trustees monthly fee and out of pocket expenses, the Custodians fee and the reimbursement of the Custodians expenses, exchange listing fees, United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC) registration fees, printing and mailing costs, audit fees and up to $100,000 per annum in legal expenses.
• The Sponsor is continuing to voluntarily waive a portion of its fee and reduce the Sponsors Fee to 0.30%.

Industry Context

StockSavvy.ai notes that the performance of the abrdn Silver ETF Trust is directly tied to the price of physical silver. The significant NAV decrease reflects the broader market trend for silver during the second quarter of 2026, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation expectations, interest rates, and global economic sentiment.

Comparison to Industry Standards

• The expense ratio for the abrdn Silver ETF Trust is 0.30% (net of waiver), which is competitive within the precious metals ETF sector.
• Many silver ETFs aim for a similar objective of tracking the spot price of silver, with variations in expense ratios and physical backing mechanisms.
• Competitors like iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares ETF (formerly) also hold physical silver, and their performance is similarly impacted by silver price fluctuations.

Legal Proceedings

• None disclosed in the filing.

Related Party Transactions

• The Sponsor (abrdn ETFs Sponsor LLC) and the Trustee (The Bank of New York Mellon) are considered related parties.
• The Trustee and Custodian and their affiliates may act as Authorized Participants, purchasing or selling Shares and silver for their own accounts or customer accounts.
• Trustee and Custodian fees are paid by the Sponsor and are not separate expenses of the Trust.

Stakeholder Impact

• Shareholders are directly impacted by the decline in the price of silver and the resulting decrease in the Trust's NAV and NAV per Share.
• The Trust's reliance on physical silver means its performance is highly sensitive to commodity market volatility, affecting investor returns.
• The Sponsor's fee waiver provides some relief to shareholders by mitigating the impact of expenses on returns.

Next Steps

• The Trust will continue to hold physical silver and issue/redeem Shares in Baskets with Authorized Participants.
• The Sponsor will continue to monitor the silver market and manage the Trust's operations.
• The Sponsor will continue its voluntary fee waiver to maintain the expense ratio at 0.30%.

Key Dates

Recommendation

The filing indicates a significant decline in the Trust's NAV and the price of silver, reflecting negative market performance. While the Sponsor's fee waiver is a positive, the overall trend is unfavorable. Given the direct correlation to silver prices, which are subject to volatility, a 'hold' recommendation is appropriate for existing investors, awaiting a potential recovery in silver prices or a change in market conditions. New investment would be speculative.

Keywords

silver ETF, physical silver, SIVR, commodity ETF, precious metals, investment trust, NAV, silver price