10-Q: abrdn Gold ETF Trust Reports Strong Q3 2025 Growth

abrdn Gold ETF Trust saw its Net Asset Value surge by 20.76% in Q3 2025, driven by a significant increase in gold prices and share creations.

Summary

• Net Asset Value (NAV) increased by 20.76% to $6.24 billion for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, from $5.17 billion at June 30, 2025.
• For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, NAV increased by 66.14% to $6.24 billion from $3.76 billion at December 31, 2024.
• The price per ounce of gold rose by 16.36% during Q3 2025, from $3,287.45 at June 30, 2025, to $3,825.30 at September 30, 2025.
• For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the price per ounce of gold increased by 46.52% from $2,610.85 at December 31, 2024, to $3,825.30 at September 30, 2025.
• NAV per Share increased by 16.29% to $36.47 in Q3 2025, and by 46.35% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025.
• Total return on net asset value was 16.29% for the quarter and 46.35% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025.
• Outstanding Shares increased to 171.1 million at September 30, 2025, from 164.8 million at June 30, 2025, due to 8.9 million shares created and 2.6 million redeemed during the quarter.
• The Trust reported an increase in net assets from operations of $871.86 million for the quarter and $1.86 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2025.
• The Sponsor's Fee for the quarter was $2.40 million, and $6.30 million for the nine months, representing an annualized expense ratio of 0.17%.
• At September 30, 2025, the Trust held 1,638,228.9 ounces of gold with a fair value of $6.27 billion.

Sentiment

Score: 9

Explanation: The Trust reported exceptionally strong financial performance driven by a significant increase in gold prices and robust investor demand, leading to substantial growth in Net Asset Value and total returns. The operational efficiency with a low expense ratio and effective controls further enhances the positive outlook.

Positives

• Significant increase in Net Asset Value (NAV) by 20.76% for the quarter and 66.14% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025.
• Strong performance of gold price, rising 16.36% in Q3 2025 and 46.52% over the nine-month period.
• Healthy investor demand indicated by a net increase in outstanding shares, with 8.9 million shares created versus 2.6 million redeemed in Q3 2025.
• Substantial increase in net assets from operations, reaching $871.86 million for the quarter and $1.86 billion for the nine months.
• Consistent and low expense ratio of 0.17% annualized.
• Effective disclosure controls and procedures, and no material changes to internal control over financial reporting.

Negatives

• The Trust incurred a net investment loss of $2.40 million for the quarter and $6.30 million for the nine months, solely due to the Sponsor's Fee.
• The Trust had gold payable of $25.53 million at September 30, 2025, for the redemption of shares, indicating some redemptions were pending settlement.
• The Trust does not hold any cash balances, relying solely on gold transfers and sales for liquidity.

Risks

• The Trust's sole business activity is the investment in gold, creating a concentration of risk associated with fluctuations in the price of gold.
• Factors affecting gold price include global gold supply and demand (forward selling, producer purchases, central bank activities, production costs), investor inflation expectations, currency exchange rates, interest rates, hedge fund/commodity fund activities, and global/regional political, economic, or financial events (tariffs, sanctions, trade restrictions).
• There is no assurance that gold will maintain its long-term value in terms of purchasing power.
• A decline in the price of gold is expected to cause a proportionate decline in the value of the Shares.
• The Trust's maximum exposure under indemnification arrangements for the Trustee and Sponsor is unknown.

Future Outlook

The Trust's investment objective remains to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses. The Sponsor believes the Shares offer a cost-effective investment relative to traditional gold investment methods. The Trust does not provide specific forward-looking guidance on gold prices or market performance, but its operations are expected to continue in line with its established structure of creating and redeeming shares in exchange for gold.

Management Comments

• The Sponsor believes that, for many investors, the Shares will represent a cost effective investment relative to traditional means of investing in gold.
• Neither the Trust nor the Sponsor is under a duty to update any of the forward-looking statements, to conform such statements to actual results or to reflect a change in managements expectations or predictions.
• The Trust's disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of September 30, 2025.
• There have been no changes that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, the Trust's or Sponsor's internal control over financial reporting.

Industry Context

The strong performance of abrdn Gold ETF Trust in Q3 and the first nine months of 2025 is directly tied to the significant appreciation in gold prices, which rose 16.36% in the quarter and 46.52% year-to-date. This suggests a robust demand for safe-haven assets or a response to inflationary pressures and global economic uncertainties, aligning with broader trends observed in the precious metals market. The increase in share creations also indicates growing investor interest in gold-backed ETFs as a liquid and accessible way to gain exposure to gold, potentially outperforming other commodity-linked investments during this period.

Comparison to Industry Standards

• The Trust's expense ratio of 0.17% is competitive within the physical gold ETF market, often lower than actively managed gold funds or direct physical gold ownership costs.
• The total return of 16.29% for Q3 2025 and 46.35% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, directly reflects the underlying gold price performance, which is the primary benchmark for a passively managed gold ETF. This performance would be compared against other major gold ETFs like GLD or IAU, and the broader gold market indices.
• The increase in gold price from $2,610.85 at December 31, 2024, to $3,825.30 at September 30, 2025, represents a substantial gain, indicating a strong bull market for gold during this period, likely outperforming many equity and fixed-income benchmarks.

Corporate Governance

Related Party Transactions

• The Sponsor (abrdn ETFs Sponsor LLC) is a related party and receives a Sponsor's Fee (0.17% annualized) paid through in-kind transfers of gold.
• The Trustee (The Bank of New York Mellon) is a related party.
• The Trustee and the Custodian (ICBC Standard Bank Plc) and their affiliates may act as Authorized Participants and purchase or sell Shares for their own account or as agents.
• The Trustee and Custodian fees are paid by the Sponsor and are not separate expenses of the Trust.

Stakeholder Impact

• Shareholders: Directly benefit from the appreciation in gold prices, leading to higher NAV per share and total returns. Exposed to the concentration risk of gold price fluctuations.
• Sponsor (abrdn ETFs Sponsor LLC): Receives fees based on the Trust's net asset value, benefiting from the growth in assets under management.
• Authorized Participants: Benefit from the liquidity and efficiency of the creation/redemption process, which was improved by the reduced settlement period.
• Custodians: ICBC Standard Bank Plc benefits from holding the Trust's gold, while JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. no longer serves in this capacity.

Next Steps

• The Trust will continue to issue and redeem Shares in Baskets with Authorized Participants in exchange for gold.
• The Trustee will continue to evaluate the gold held by the Trust and determine the NAV daily.
• The Sponsor will continue to assume administrative and marketing expenses and receive its fee through in-kind transfers of gold.

Key Dates

Recommendation

The abrdn Gold ETF Trust has demonstrated exceptional performance, with its Net Asset Value and NAV per Share significantly increasing due to a robust surge in gold prices. The Trust's passive investment strategy directly tracks gold, making it a pure play on the commodity. Given the strong upward trend in gold prices, coupled with the Trust's efficient, low-cost structure (0.17% expense ratio) and increasing investor interest (net share creations), the outlook for continued capital appreciation appears highly favorable. While subject to gold price volatility, the current market conditions suggest a strong 'buy' recommendation for investors seeking direct exposure to gold's performance.

Keywords

Gold ETF, SGOL, abrdn Gold ETF Trust, Physical Gold Shares, Gold Bullion, Investment Fund, Commodity ETF, SEC Filing, 10-Q, Financial Results, Net Asset Value, Gold Price, Investment Performance